GEW Assessment Report
by Dr Hichem Karoui
1. Historical background of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
The convoluted historical foundation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has its roots in a number of connected episodes and critical developments. Most importantly, we must recognise that Israel\’s occupation of the Palestinian territory is no different from any previous colonialist enterprise. On the other hand, such projects have always been met with opposition of all kinds, and organised resistance has never been vanquished throughout history.[1]
Hamas, a Palestinian resistance movement, is a significant component in this complex dynamic. This group employs various strategies and goals within the context of the conflict. Conversely, Israeli security and defence services face numerous challenges in maintaining stability. The recent episodes in Gaza involving Israeli military operations and their effects on the civilian populace have sparked international outrage and had far-reaching consequences for regional stability. Predicting the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains challenging, with multiple intertwined forces dictating possible scenarios and results. Amid this protracted conflict, there is an urgent need to address humanitarian issues and find a diplomatic solution to alleviate human suffering in Gaza. Regardless of willingness or timing, it is impossible to avoid the political necessity of accepting the Palestinian people\’s complete independence and sovereignty in the historical Palestinian territories.
1.1. Origins of the conflict
The beginnings of the current war are wrapped in alternating perspectives, giving the conflict a complex and protracted aspect. It concerns land rights, individual identities, and the pursuit of self-government. The forcible formation of Israel in 1948 and the subsequent displacement of Palestinian refugees were helped by deceit and warfare—roles played by the United States, Britain, France, and their allies. Following the 1967 Six-Day War, Israel gained control of the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and East Jerusalem. Persistent strain and fighting between factions have led to the current situation in Gaza, where the civilian population suffers greatly due to Israeli military manoeuvres and sanctions. The conflict\’s progression emphasises the critical necessity for a long-term, peaceful solution.[2]
1.2. Key events leading to the current situation
Several critical factors, particularly the current situation in Gaza, have contributed to the recent escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In 2018, a notable example was Israel\’s defensive systems\’ reaction to Palestinian protests along the Gaza-Israel border. Consequent periods of violent unrest lasted several months, significantly increasing the casualty toll.[3] Another critical factor was the United States\’ controversial declaration recognising Jerusalem as Israel\’s capital, which sparked outrage among Palestinians. Furthermore, the continual development of Israeli settlements in occupied territories has heightened tensions, creating widespread discontent among Palestinians. These critical incidents have fueled resentment and fanaticism among both camps, complicating the task of fostering peace and security in the region.[4]
2. The role of Hamas in the conflict
The Palestinian resistance group Hamas has emerged as a key player in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Its rise can be linked to several issues, including Palestinians\’ dissatisfaction with the Palestinian Authority\’s perceived inability to make substantial progress and social and economic problems. To achieve its goals, Hamas employs a mix of military resistance and political activism. To win support, it has used tactics such as martyrdom (wrongly called in the West suicide bombings,) rocket strikes, guerilla warfare against Israeli targets, and grassroots community development programmes. All of these tactics have been used by national resistance groups and guerillas all over the world, including Marxist-Leninist organisations. The aim did not differ: hurting the enemy through volunteer sacrifice. When a nation suffers under the yoke of an invader, nothing can be excluded as a means of resistance. This is not terrorism, and Hamas is no more terrorist than the PLO, Vietnam\’s resistance against the USA, the Chinese revolution against the Japanese and the Westerners, the Algerian and Tunisian revolutions against France, and so on. As to the ideology, as long as it is useful for the national liberation movement, it is good, whether it is religion, Marxism, or Ghandi\’s \”pacifism\” (actually, it is known as negative aggressiveness in behaviourism).
2.1. Rise of Hamas as a Palestinian Resistance Group
The emergence of Hamas as a Palestinian resistance group represents a significant shift in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Hamas, an Islamic political and military organisation, arose in the late 1980s in response to the Palestinian people\’s occupation and perceived oppression. It has grown into a strong force in the area, challenging Israel\’s control.[5] Hamas has successfully mobilised Palestinian resistance against Israeli occupation by employing political and military measures. Armed attacks, martyrdom, and rockets are among their methods, which have led to losses on both sides. Hamas seeks to build an independent Palestinian state and intends to do it through armed resistance. As a key participant, Hamas\’s influence and activities have a considerable impact on the current situation in Gaza and the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict.[6]
2.2. Hamas\’ tactics and goals
As a Palestinian resistance group, Hamas employs specific tactics and has clear goals in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Their fight does not differ from any national liberation movement seeking freedom and resisting foreign invaders. As a result of their actions, they have inflicted many casualties on Israel and disrupted daily life for Zionist settlers, feeling no longer secure and safe. [7] The Israeli colonial authorities have faced significant challenges in countering Hamas\’ tactics, as their strategies often involve blending within the civilian population, making it difficult to neutralise their threats effectively. But after the 7 October operation, a page is turned in the conflict. Another begins: Hamas has proved it can reach Israel in the heart and inflict a lot of pain, with hundreds of killed, over a thousand injured and a still undefined number of prisoners. This is enough to change completely the equation in the Middle East. This is, henceforth, a new era.
However, the ongoing conflict and the recent developments in Gaza highlight the complex dynamic between Hamas and the Israeli military, raising concerns about the escalating violence and the potential for achieving a peaceful resolution. [8]
3. Recent developments in Gaza
3.1. Israeli military operations in Gaza
The latest Israeli military actions in Gaza have sparked heated debate and aroused concerns about the region\’s escalation of violence. These activities have resulted in significant civilian casualties and infrastructural damage, resulting in a catastrophic humanitarian catastrophe. We write this paper on 9 October while the Israeli bombing of Gaza continues through the night. Observers and commentators are talking about another Israeli genocide, while the Western capitals are concerned only with their citizens in Israel. Some have been killed; some are missing. This means they were in the settlements that Hamas had attacked. Israel could not protect them. The only reaction Netanyahu is capable of seems to be genocide in Gaza under the silent eyes of Western allies. The Palestinians are not Ukrainians. Obvious!
The Israeli military faces enormous hurdles in dealing with the situation and safeguarding the safety of Israeli residents. [9] The advent of Hamas as a Palestinian resistance faction complicates the battle, as its methods and objectives shape the dynamics of the ongoing conflict. The international community has reacted with varying degrees of sympathy and condemnation, while the consequences for regional stability remain a major worry. To predict the course of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, one must consider alternative outcomes and scenarios and the elements that impact its resolution. Given the current situation, the search for a peaceful solution becomes even more important, as it holds the key to resolving the humanitarian catastrophe and ensuring the region\’s stability. [10]
3.2. Impact on the civilian population
The latest military actions in Gaza have substantially impacted civilians, causing considerable humanitarian concerns. The violence has taken many innocent lives, including women and children, and severely damaged infrastructure and crucial services. Hospitals, schools, and residential areas have been attacked, depriving the civilian population of essential medical treatment and facilities.[11] The psychological toll on Gazans is also enormous, as they live under continual fear and uncertainty. The international community must address these humanitarian concerns immediately and work towards a peaceful resolution to avoid future suffering.[12]
3.3. Humanitarian crisis in Gaza
The ongoing Israeli military actions in Gaza have exacerbated the humanitarian crisis. Civilians are enduring the brunt of the fighting, with restricted access to essentials like food, water, and medical supplies. As tensions between Israel and Palestine continue to rise, the situation has broader ramifications for regional stability. It is critical to meet Gaza\’s acute humanitarian needs while prioritising a peaceful conclusion to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But in the present situation, this seems wishful thinking.
4. International reactions and implications
4.1. Responses from the international community
The continuous Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as well as the recent crisis in Gaza, have elicited a variety of reactions from the international community. Many countries have expressed concern about the rising violence and emphasised the importance of an immediate end to hostilities. Some have urged a diplomatic solution through conversation and negotiation. In contrast, others have condemned Hamas\’ indiscriminate rocket strikes on Israeli civilians while forgetting all the criminal acts performed by Jewish Israeli war criminals against the Palestinians for 70 years. We still hear verbiage like \”Israel\’s right to defend itself\”, as if the aggressor who dispossessed the other is the Palestinian people, not the Israeli! [13] Still, international organisations such as the UN have advocated protecting civilians and distributing humanitarian aid in Gaza. Recognising the urgent need to de-escalate tensions, the international community is unified in pursuing a peaceful resolution to this long-running conflict.[14]
4.2. Implications for regional stability
The prolonged conflict between Israel and Palestine and the current situation in Gaza have serious consequences for regional stability. The increased violence and Israel\’s military operations in Gaza have heightened tensions, threatening the region\’s stability. The international response to this disagreement has been mixed, with some countries condemning Israel\’s actions and others expressing support. This lack of agreement complicates the issue and impedes peaceful resolution efforts. The humanitarian issue in Gaza is also a severe threat. The poor living conditions and suffering civilians face can foster extremism and animosity, increasing the chance of future conflicts. To maintain regional stability, all parties must prioritise negotiation, de-escalation, and pursuing a peaceful solution. And most of all, stop the Israeli criminal genocide!
5. Assessing the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
5.1. Potential outcomes and scenarios
Many potential outcomes and scenarios linger on the horizon in the wake of the increasing Israeli-Palestinian war in Gaza.
- In one plausible scenario, both factions pursue military goals and engage in conflict with one another throughout a protracted cycle of violence and brief ceasefires. Such a chain of events might cause considerably more devastation and loss of life, compounding the already severe humanitarian situation in Gaza.
- A second scenario, characterised by a political breakthrough, exists within the field of possibilities. Negotiations and diplomatic efforts coexist happily in this arena, resulting in a mutually agreed-upon ceasefire and a long-term resolution to the conflict. Such a historic success involves significant concessions from both parties concerned and the active participation of the international community as neutral mediators. Unfortunately, history bears witness to the numerous obstacles and profound scepticism that have continually stymied previous peace efforts, making the realisation of this scenario extremely difficult.
- A probable outcome implies a significant change in the conflict\’s dynamics, such as a shift in the Israeli government\’s policy or Palestinian leadership. This hypothetical scenario may open up new avenues for conversation and peacebuilding; nevertheless, the timing of these developments remains undetermined.
With several possible outcomes and scenarios, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict\’s future and the Gaza situation are in doubt. To tackle this complex issue, a thorough and inclusive approach that goes into the fundamental grievances and ambitions of Israelis and Palestinians alike is required.
5.2. Factors influencing the resolution of the conflict
Several critical variables are impacting the outcome of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
- First and foremost, both parties\’ historical narratives and ambitions must be recognised and accepted.
- Second, adherence to international law and previously agreed-upon arrangements, such as Israeli withdrawal to pre-1967 boundaries, is critical.
- Third, creating an atmosphere of trust and mutual understanding and encouraging communication and diplomacy becomes an essential prerequisite for meaningful negotiations.
- Furthermore, the participation of new influential impartial international parties, such as China, the European Union, and regional influential countries, is critical to facilitating a fair and balanced conclusion.
- Finally, resolving the conflict\’s main issues, including borders, settlements, Jerusalem, refugees, and security, becomes critical for a long-term peace accord.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict can be resolved by considering these elements and working towards a complete settlement.
References
[1] Lentin, R. \”Palestinian Lives Matter: Racialising Israeli Settler-Colonialism.\” Journal of Holy Land and Palestine Studies, 2020. Rutgers.edu
Hughes, SS. \”Unbounded Territoriality: Territorial Control, Settler Colonialism, and Israel/Palestine.\” Settler Colonial Studies, 2020. Taylor & Francis. HTMLNadia Naser-Najjab (2020) Palestinian education and the ‘logic of elimination’, Settler Colonial Studies, 10:3, 311-330, DOI: 10.1080/2201473X.2020.1760433
[2] Ali, MS, and M James. \”Six-Day War that Changed the Middle East.\” International Journal of History and Cultural…, 2020. Ihs-humanities.com
Chunchao, Z. 2021. \”American Policy in the Six Day War and Anti-Americanism in the Middle East.\” International Journal of Frontiers in Sociology. francis-press.com
[3] Shadeed, Y., Ayesh, A., & Itmeizeh, M. \”Critical Discourse Analysis of Donald Trump\’s Speech on Recognizing Jerusalem as the Capital of Israel.\” Academic Research, 2019. researchgate.net
[4] Ayumia, A., Andini, P., et al. 2022. \”ORGANIZATION OF ISLAMIC COOPERATION RESPONSES ON THE ISRAEL AGGRESION AND THE UNITED STATES EMBASSY RELOCATION TO JERUSALEM.\” Lampung Journal of International Law. unila.ac.id
[5] Faeq, N., & Jahnata, D. 2020. \”The Historical Antecedents of Hamas.\” International Journal of Social Science Research. ijssrr.com
[6] Alashqar, Y. \”Evolution of Palestinian Civil Society and the Role of Nationalism, Occupation, and Religion.\” Researchgate.net. researchgate.net
[7] Salaymeh, B. 2023. \”Hamas: Isolated, Contained, but not Co-opted?\” JSTOR. HTML
[8] Buğra, S. \”Hamas, the Islamic Wing of Palestinian Resistance: Its Roots, Characteristics, and Way of Politics.\” Liberal Düşünce Dergisi, 2020. dergipark.org.tr
[9] Morag, N. \”Urban Warfare: The Recent Israeli Experience.\” Journal of Strategic Security, 2023. usf.edu
[10] Weinthal, E., & Sowers, J. \”Targeting Infrastructure and Livelihoods in the West Bank and Gaza.\” International Affairs, 2019. researchgate.net
[11] Alashqar, M Mohammed, and A Abdul Rahim. \”War Crimes in Gaza Strip from Year 2008 2021: Individual Criminal Responsibility Under the Legal Framework of Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court.\” Journal of …, 2023. uum.edu.my
[12] Yarchi, M., & Ayalon, A. \”Fighting over the Image: The Israeli− Palestinian Conflict in the Gaza Strip 2018− 19.\” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 2023. Taylor & Francis. HTML
[13] Spitka, T. \”IC in Israel/Palestine: Normative Influence and Ice Cream Soldiers.\” In … Protection Strategies in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, 2023. Springer. springer.com
[14] Spitka, T. 2023. \”National and International Civilian Protection Strategies in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.\” Library.oapen.org. oapen.org
